Daniel Kahneman. Thinking Fast and Slow: some thoughts from Córdoba
Kahneman shows that if potential earnings are bigger than potential losses then the most rational strategy is to take the risks even in 50% gambles (this, of course, does not exclude adopting risk mitigation policies). In cases where the probabilities of winning are greater than 50% and the reward in case of earning is greater than the loss in case of failing, not adopting innovative policies may cost public institutions large amounts of tax dollars.